GOP's new fear: Losing the Senate in November

[In It to Win It]

https://www.axios.com/2026/02/06/gop-senate-midterms-2026

Archived
https://archive.ph/89eUa

Top Republicans are increasingly worried about private polling that paints a dire picture of the midterms — and it's not just the House they're afraid of losing, it's also the Senate.

Why it matters: President Trump has warned Republicans that losing their slim House majority could lead to a third impeachment. But a Democratic takeover of the Senate would be a political earthquake — and neuter his last two years in office.

Zoom in: For the first time, GOP strategists are telling Axios that losing the Senate — where Republicans have a 53-47 majority — is a distinct possibility, and that they'll have to fight harder than expected to keep control.

Operatives say they've reviewed polling that shows the GOP facing competitive Senate races not just in traditional battlegrounds such as Michigan, Maine and North Carolina, but also in conservative states like Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.

Top GOP strategists acknowledge that immigration and the economy — the two issues that drove Trump's win in 2024 — are now liabilities.

"A year ago, I would have told you we were almost guaranteed to win the Senate," one GOP operative who's reviewed internal polling told Axios. "Today, I would have to tell you it's far less certain."

ICYMI in Axios: “GOP's new fear: Losing the Senate in November”

They’re right to be afraid.
https://www.axios.com/2026/02/06/gop-senate-midterms-2026

— Senate Democrats (@dscc.bsky.social) 2026-02-06T19:09:31.786512861Z

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

1. Please!!

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. Nothing can stop the Blue Tsunami!

But maybe the fear will get more Republicans to vote for ICE restrictions.

[chowder66]

3. They're afraid they will have to fight for it even as they try to cheat.

[Takket]

4. going to take a lot of hard work and intense relentless messaging about what we plan to do......

if we depend on people just voting against drumpf, we are going to be disappointed. we need to inspire people to vote.

[moose65]

5. I hope this is like 2006

Back then, it was pretty much a given that Dems would retake the House after 12 years. People were sick and tired of George W, and Dems were energized.

No one really expected the Dems to take the Senate that year, but they did it. Here’s hoping for a repeat performance.

[Vinca]

6. Wouldn't that be great? After the results in Texas in the state race, it's not an impossibility by any stretch.

[LuvLoogie]

7. They are afraid of the racist policies not working electorally.

But they are not afraid of supporting a racist dictatorship