Dr. Michael Burry is predicting bad news for the stock market.

[LuckyCharms]

He's predicting a 32% decline in the market, and possibly up to a 77% collapse.

I'm not going to post the video where I saw this, because I think it is an AI voice, and it's annoying (but factual). But if you are not familiar with Burry, he's a medical doctor who stopped practicing to become a full time investor. He predicted the 2008 stock market crash, and made money off the crash by shorting the market. By doing this, he made a profit of $100 million personally, and he made a cumulative profit of $700 million for the investors at his firm Scion Asset management. He is portrayed by Christian Bale in the 2015 film "The Big Short".

Burry is an interesting guy, an I kind of keep an eye on what he has to say.. He warns of the AI bubble.

I'd try to post some links (I'm sure there are a lot of links out there...just Google his name under the "news" tab), but I'm working outside and just took a quick break to eat something.

Back to work. Be careful out there.

[GusBob]

1. So yeah, at the end of the movie

They said he was checking out of wall street and was going to work or invest in water
Is he still doing that er no?

[LuckyCharms]

2. He's investing on the short side. I don't really know what a "substack" is...

but he has one for people who are interested in what he thinks. I think he is just investing personally and managing his own wealth because he dissolved Scion.

I know he's very bearish, and has bought a shit ton of puts against Palantir and Nvidia.

[GusBob]

3. I think a substack is a sandwich platter you get at Subway

so yeah, I dont know either. I dont know how one would invest in water either

[LuckyCharms]

4. You can't invest in water directly.

He was referring to investing in water proxies, such as water-rich agricultural properties.

[ProfessorGAC]

5. Seems Too High

I could buy a major correction, but there are tens of trillions worth the stocks not impacted by wishes & dreams.
Those stocks are in companies that are actually doing something of economic value right at this moment.
I think 1/3rd or more of total market value I'd a gross overshoot.

[Disaffected]

6. Yawn. Lots of people predicted or claim they predicted

(sorta like Trump claiming he predicted 9-11) stock market crashes. Such is inevitable when there are literally thousands of so called gurus claiming to have some sort of special expertise and, a few who get lucky once in a while (some dude named Joe Granville IIRC comes to mind). What we almost never hear about are the wrong predictions.

It all comes down to market timing which is almost always a loosing strategy especially if played long enough.

[LuckyCharms]

7. Well, no, he actually DID predict it. He didn't claim he predicted it.

And he actually made close to a billion bucks between himself and his clients.

Do I think he's right this time? I'm not smart enough to have an opinion about it.

What you are saying is akin to "yawning" at Warren Buffet's opinion, albeit on a smaller but still significant scale.

I won't make decisions based on one person's opinion, but I do find him interesting.

And Buffet finds Burry interesting as well. I tend to pay attention to people who have had success. I don't necessarily follow, but I pay attention.

[Disaffected]

8. OK, he did predict it.

But, same argument still stands pretty much as is. It's sorta like the million monkeys typing - once in a while something intelligible pops out.

Thing is, there is no market "guru" that is consistently right over the longer term, in the sense that said guru has some special market prediction gift that is possessed by few others (other than those who look for underlying value and hold mainly for the long term, such as Warren Buffet).

[nitpicked]

9. Remember we've had a big climb up from the lows of the past 365 days

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX

shows a low on the S&P of 4835. 32% off the 7002 high is about 4760.

If we had a reason to Seriously Tailspin (like there was in 2008-2009), we Could go back to 2025 lows.

77%? THAT's possibly based on "Fibonacci number" theory, and I don't think it was THAT bad even in 2008-2009.

Maybe he's speculating on the chance of the current Southwestern megadrought spreading and blocking the rise of data centers??

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwestern_North_American_megadrought