Reasons I'm optimistic (and reasons I'm not)

[EnergizedLib]

Optimistic:

- The party out of power virtually always picks up seats during midterms, and trump doesn't have Dubya numbers of popularity after 9/11. When it comes to inflation, economics and gas prices, people are not enamored with the job the felon is doing.

- An unpopular war, an unpopular ballroom being taxpayer funded, higher gas prices, job losses, tariffs, businesses suffering, our debt being higher than our GDP.

- While our party might poll in the red, some of that is from disgruntled Democrats who want our leaders to fight harder.

- States like Texas and Florida may have dummymandered (and Florida may have violated its State Constitution).

- Key 2024 voting blocs like Gen Z. and Latinos are not happy with the felon. At all.

- We've won or overperformed in a lot of state and local elections since 2024, flipping dozens of seats.

- We're fighting back against their gerrymandering nonsense.

Reasons I'm not optimistic:

- Voter intimidation (ICE-Is at polls? Louise Lucas being raided. What other shenanigans will they try to pull? You know they will.)

- The illegitimate SCOTUS giving us Callais and allowing Louisiana to declare an emergency to gerrymander, emboldening other states to take suit, which makes me think we might not win even if we get more votes.

- While independents have really soured on the felon and Democrats are extremely motivated to vote, the cult spoke very loud last night in Indiana they are a cult and they want all trump, all the time, that the Republican Party of Lincoln, Roosevelt and Eisenhower is long gone, and it doesn't matter how in the pits this country is or even their personal situation is, this is what they want.

- FOX Entertainment propaganda and the notion that no matter how bad it gets under Republicans, some are convinced Democrats are somehow worse.

- Other people on the red team may have been spooked by Indiana and will try to redraw.

[mr715]

1. I am more optimistic than not.

We're going to win the House by a lot.

If people on the east coast go to bed knowing who controls the Senate, that means we lost. If we still don't know control of the Senate until a day or two after election day, I'd wager we'll be the ones winning the majority.

When we have a majority in both chambers, we can do some damage control and do nothing but prop up the Democratic party in advance of the 2028 election.

[EnergizedLib]

3. Even if we sweep Congress

How are we going to combat red state Congressional maps that if they don’t go into effect this year, they will in 2028? All we can do is redraw ourselves.

[mr715]

4. We win.

The election of 2026 will not provide us with any real governing power, but it will hobble the GOP. We need to go bold and forge a new coalition for 2028.

End the filibuster. Yeah, Trump will veto our bills but every day send a bill to his desk that embarasses and debases their party.

Simultaneously, yeah, the Northeast should redistrict.

In 2028, run in all 50 states and don't run on a timid agenda. Force the GOP to fight everywhere.

If we win in 2028, we can begin undoing the damage done. It isn't impossible, but it isn't trivial.

I understand the circularity of the idea of "winning by winning in order to win," but we need to break the downward spiral our party has been on for a while. We need to become popular again and we can do that by being bold.

New voters, new coalitions. Nothing is fixed.

Edit: Also, if we SWEEP congress -- as in big majority in the house and, say... 53 seats in the Senate? The entire narrative is going to change. The redistricting issue will shift from one of tactical line drawing to strategic mismanagement. When the other side doesn't play by the rules, it sucks and seems impossible to overcome. But history says we will overcome it because progress is inevitable.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. Drive more and use as much gas as you could ever afford

Talk up Trump $6-8-10 gas with people you know. MAGA needs to read our lips. Unsettle their minds, disagree with everything they say. Silence, luke-warm grunts, head shakes, doubts, "Oh?" Create doubt in their pea brains.

We have the horses. Whether we have the cash, the will to turnout, and can blunt the opposition, and will get any kind of fair shake from the courts is beyond our control.

Sow doubt in MAGAts' minds!!

[EnergizedLib]

5. Then you have cult members

Who think the higher gas prices are worth it, or you have part of the electorate who hates trans people so much they don’t care about the economy or their own personal situation.

[GenThePerservering]

7. Ugh, I hope you're kidding with the 'drive more'

too many cars on the road as it is, too much stink, too much death.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

6. MaddowBlog-Trump's FBI faces difficult questions following raid on Virginia Democrat's office

I don’t know if the case against L. Louise Lucas has merit. I do know federal law enforcement hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt.

I have no idea whether the case against Virginia's L. Louise Lucas has merit. But I do know that the DOJ's and FBI's hyper-partisan leaders haven't exactly earned the benefit of the doubt.

Not to put too fine a point on this, but this is why we don't politicize federal law enforcement

— Steve Benen (@stevebenen.com) 2026-05-06T18:29:50.055Z

https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trumps-fbi-faces-difficult-questions-following-raid-on-virginia-democrats-office

Virginia Senate President Pro Tempore L. Louise Lucas is generally known to national audiences as the Democratic leader who spearheaded a redistricting effort in the commonwealth, which voters endorsed and may help her party keep pace with Republicans’ gerrymandering arms race.

But two weeks after the statewide vote, Lucas is poised to be known for something very different, although possibly related. Politico reported:

The FBI searched the office of Democratic Virginia state Sen. L. Louise Lucas on Wednesday morning, according to multiple media reports and news footage in front of her Portsmouth office.

The FBI confirmed it was “executing a court-authorized federal search warrant in Portsmouth,” but did not explicitly state a target of its probe or what it was investigating.

.....The AP’s report added, “Though the exact nature of the investigation was unclear, the search comes as the FBI and Justice Department have opened a spate of politically charged investigations into perceived adversaries of President Donald Trump.”

It’s that second part of the sentence that stands out.....

But while I don’t know whether the case against Lucas has merit, I do know that the hyperpartisan leaders of the Justice Department and the FBI have made it impossible to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Not to put too fine a point on this, but this is why we don’t politicize federal law enforcement. Because even if the underlying case is legitimate, it’s impossible to avoid the larger context and the degree to which this looks like a retaliatory investigation against a Democrat, launched by a weaponized department known for its retaliatory investigations against Democrats.....

Shortly after FBI officials executed the search warrant on Wednesday morning, Virginia House of Delegates Speaker Don Scott issued a written statement that read in part, “Given the politicization of this administration — an FBI led by Kash Patel and a Justice Department run by President Donald Trump’s former personal attorney — I think people should take this with a grain of salt and allow the facts to come out before jumping to conclusions.”

Scott’s statement continued, “At this point we simply do not know what this ultimately means. Right now, there is far more theatrics and speculation than actual information available to the public. It also raises important questions. How was Fox News, a national media outlet, first on the scene? Did they know about the raid beforehand? If so, who approved that? And what more information is there about what this raid was actually about? Virginians deserve answers before anyone rushes to political conclusions.”