Democrats will still win the House

[Pototan]

First of all, the few African American districts in the South being chopped up and eliminated is an outright disgrace.

Having said that, those racist maneuvers by the Trump wing of the Republican party will not result in the Republicans holding the House majority.

I still see a minimum of 231 seats in the Democratic column. Every district that the Republicans hold that was Trump plus 12 or less is in jeopardy and will most likely flip.

That's my evaluation.

[aeromanKC]

1. 40 seat cushion would have been nice, but 20 will do.

🌊

[lostnfound]

2. There are 7 states (at least) where voter caging will be rampant due to intentional purging of voter rolls

All eyes are on the federal bill that was proposed but there are state level equivalent bills that have been turned into law in multiple states.
This will be the big story after the election (if we actually had a free press, of course).

[Bluestocking]

3. I agree

I think the Repugs are depending on republican voters from the past that are either going to stay home or vote Democratic. Dividing up the black vote actually might increase the number of Democratic victories.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

4. Thank you - I've been wondering about that. How about the Senate?

[Pototan]

7. Flip of a coin. time will tell

[Chasstev365]

5. I admire your optimism

However, I feel the powers that be are never going to allow Democrats to retain power ever again.

[Pototan]

6. How do you explain all the off year wins so far?

They have a structural advantage, but the tide is too high.

A 50 foot wall can't hold back a 200-foot wave.

[Chasstev365]

9. Listen; I hope to God you're correct, but with Trump we're in uncharted waters

We saw how the Supreme Court acted in 2000.
We know that Trump has been jonesing to declare Martial Law.
We know the Republican Party is compromised and or corrupt.
Kamala Harris would have mostly likely won in 2024 if the GOP hadn't successfully purged 4.7 million voters nation-wide.

[JBTaurus83]

8. My problem is that

The structural advantage of the GOP just gets larger and larger. It was already hard for Dems to win the house, now it will be even harder to win or keep it. The Senate also favors the GOP given that every fly over state gets 2 senators even when about 10 people live there. I think Dump is so unpopular now, that we will probably take the house, but, they are going to try literally every trick in the book. I don’t know how this can be called a fair election or democracy when a majority vote does not necessarily change the government.

[Ars Longa]

10. Agree with the OP... Especially when you look at all the horrendously bad stuff

coming down the pike, from the Trump Regime, between now and Nov
for the American electorate.

[themaguffin]

11. I don't take anything for granted, but I am still optimistic based the numbers they are achie in their wins now

even in red districts

[Pototan]

13. I'm looking for a D+15 in the midterms

and you can't gerrymander that number into a R majority

[Initech]

12. I'm in a district that's directly impacted by California's gerrymandering.

I cannot wait to fire my "100% TRUMP!!!" Fox News megachurch MAGAt representative. She can go get royally fucked!

[OLDMDDEM]

14. I agree. I think they will also win the senate.