What happens when our Strategic oil reserves run out ?

[Beachnutt]

Iran has closed the Strait again.
How many days left in our reserves ?

[dalton99a]

1. Trump said four weeks

President Trump said Wednesday that oil reserves could have run out in four weeks if the Strait of Hormuz were not opened.

“We run out of reserves at about four weeks,” Trump said in France while at the Group of Seven summit, discussing the recent memorandum of understanding with Iran. “You know, there are reserves all over the world, and we would really run out, and there’ll be a time when you wouldn’t be able to get it.”

He said it would be “bedlam” if the oil ran out.

It’s not entirely clear whether Trump was referring to U.S. or global oil inventories. The White House declined to elaborate, referring The Hill back to Trump’s original remarks.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5928618-iran-deal-oil-reserves-g7/

[ProfessorGAC]

2. It's 17 Days At This Point

About 345 million barrels in inventory, with another 15 million in pipeline and ships.
We use a but over 20 million barrels per day.
The Failure made that number up.

[Melon]

11. EIA is reporting 8 million barrel draw per week and over 400 millions barrels on June 12.

[ProfessorGAC]

12. That's Different Than What I Found Through API

[RandomNumbers]

3. Does anyone else wonder, what is the % of Trump voters, who realize

how really and truly they and their ilk have fucked this country?

I don't mean brain-dead MAGAT holdouts, or those too busy playing the stock market (and winning, for now) to give a fuck about mid- and long-term consequences. I mean people who have come, or are coming, to their senses about the true consequences of this POS being elected to the US Presidency.

Just wondering if there is a reasonable sized current of remorse out there yet. But sure people will rationalize their reasons for not voting for Kamala. But maybe some are starting to realize that "she would not have been this bad".* At worst her actions would have been contained to a "normal" range around where most voters are anyway, with some things many disliked but NOT disastrous on the Trump scale.


* n.b. Of course I think Kamala would have been good, if not great. (we'll never know which). Trying to speak from the POV of someone who couldn't bring themselves to vote for her.

[AZJonnie]

4. The less crude that is available on the world export market, the more consumers and industry pay for energy

In the most general sense, the reserves are typically built up when world oil prices are low, and depleted when world oil prices are high. If the strategic reserve were to become empty, it would be reflective of world oil prices having been high for a protracted period of time. And the longer that condition continues, the less "cushion" there is in terms of being able to protect consumers and industry from large, sudden price shocks.

Put another way, The USA can always "buy more, if it's willing to pay", so the condition of the reserve being empty is not, in and of itself, some particularly important inflection point. OTOH, the reasons it became depleted are reflective of some rather important metrics.

[Melon]

5. Oil is not in as bad a shape as you are stating.

I believe we will really see an overhang of oil in 2027 or whenever this is fully resolved. We are being set up for an oversupply of oil once the straits are open and currently oil is tight. It’s not short and readily available.

There is 412 million barrels in our reserves last week. We are drawing 8 million barrels a week. We have a long way to go.

Brent futures are up on the latest news about Iran, but still at $80. Readily available Brent spot is in line a slightly higher. Oil is readily available.
China has reserves to last easily through 2026.

If oil was truly short, you would see it in the forward pricing curves or spot buys of traded oil. Those numbers have steadily decreased the last weeks.

[Emile]

6. We nationalize our oil?

[mitch96]

7. We toppled Maduro and took over Venazula. Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves in the world

Estimated 303 billion barrels.
I think tRump and his oil buddies will tap into that...
They donated lots of money to his campaign. He invaded a country for them...
m

[AZJonnie]

8. Toppling Maduro and forcing some reforms down there is probably not enough to have that outcome at a large scale

The US did not 'take over Valenzuela', we didn't pull an Iraq War there. The VZ citizens are still there. The ones who elected Chavez on the promise he'd rein in the multi-nationals who were invading the oil fields (with the blessing of PDVSA, which was its own corrupt kingdom by that point) and leaving the VZ people with jack shit in royalties.

A bunch of these companies lost a shit-ton of investment $ when Chavez won and negated a bunch of deals PVDSA had made with global big oil, which he called corrupt (and they may well have been). It took them decade plus of int'l court cases to claw some of that money back, and it wasn't that close to what they were a$king for. Many of the potential players will look at the situation and go "yeah, not worth the risk" currently.

Plus ramping up production down there takes a long time. Infrastructure is reportedly pretty decrepit generally. It's not type sitch where the oil co's who might invest down there are doing it with an eye towards the current situation with Iran. These projects are planned well in advance and then take awhile to get online.

[Johonny]

10. That's Maduro's estimate, you understand

The reserve was never estimated to be that large until Maduro was in power. Many think the "reserve" is much smaller in scale.

[Johonny]

9. Line go up